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Dynasty league mailbag: Justyn Ross value, the top UDFA targets, SuperFlex QB rankings and more

If you don’t see your question below, drop it as a comment and I’ll be sure to give you an answer. My favorite element of covering this great game is the engagement with readers and followers of my work. If you’ve taken the time to ask, you deserve a response and I’ll make sure you get one!

As always, any referenced dynasty Trade Analyzer, player ranking or ADP data comes from DynastyLeagueFootball (DLF), the oldest and largest dynasty-centric site on the planet.

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Let’s get to it!

What is the dynasty ranking for Chiefs receivers? Is Toney top pick or does his injury history put Moore #1? Or do none of them matter as long as Kelce is there?  -Luke S.

Really hard to say, Luke. It’s a very questionable depth chart and the Chiefs are essentially saying Mahomes is so transcendent, he can make it back to the Super Bowl with a lackluster receiver corps. Toney is the WR1 IF he can stay healthy, which he never has. Valdes-Scantling has never been consistent and I can’t call him the WR1. Skyy Moore is probably the asset to acquire — and watch Justyn Ross.

How do we feel about Justyn Ross?  -Jamie M.

If you have followed my work this season, I’ve been on Ross from the beginning. He’s a risky play but the Chiefs have a suspect receiver group and Ross has the size most others don’t. I won’t be surprised if he’s starting in three-wide sets by the end of the season. I’ve acquired him in just about every league.

Is Brandon Aiyuk about to be a WR 1 or stay in WR2 or regress to WR3?  -Jake U.

I’m on the side of Aiyuk taking the step. Maybe no greater lauded player this offseason and he looks ready. At worst, I see high WR2 production but I think he takes the leap to a back-end WR1.

UDFA Rookies – who’s top of the 2023 class? RBs? WRs?  -John W.

When selecting my rising UDFAs following each draft I like to overlay my rankings with drafted situation. At RB, my top UDFA is Deneric Prince (KC) and I’ve been pounding the table since the draft. My second running back is Sean Tucker (TB) and I’m surprised he went undrafted. At WR, I’m less intrigued but am keeping a light on for Bryce Ford-Wheaton (NYG) and Jadon Haselwood (PHI)

I have a contending SuperFlex team but it’s extremely shallow. I only have Burrow and Watson at QB. How important is adding a 3rd quarterback? Is it better to go after additional WRs instead of QBs due to the cost of acquiring them? I do have 3 ‘24 firsts and 4 ‘25 firsts available. -Mitch A.

In SuperFlex, one of my golden rules is to always have a QB3. That said, you don’t have to add him in ’23 but your results may suffer, especially if the injury bug bites. With (3) 1sts in 2024, you can slow play it for one season.

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Jeff – is Bijan Robinson worth AJ Brown and two 1sts (1.03 and 1.06)? Could really use the RB help, but hate to pay premium on an unproven rookie. Also I think keeping all of that and scrounging for RBs seems a brighter future.  -Joe N.

He may be but I’m not paying that price. Robinson is currently fetching 2.5 – 3 first-round assets in return and that offer is asking for a full three. That’s too much for a running back. Look back over the past five years at the top back assets and how they have fared. Robinson is a fantastic back, but he’s still just one player. I’d pass on that offer rather easily and, instead, look to move those picks for existing “known” assets.

What is the drop off from JSN to the other receivers in this class? As someone picking 6, I’m likely out of the running for JSN and would have to settle for Addison or Johnson. Should I be looking to move up?  -Martin S.

I think the drop-off is sizable. JSN is the class of the receiver group this year and is the easy 1.02 selection. He’s in contention with Jahmyr Gibbs. At 1.06 you’re probably looking at Zay Flowers, maybe Johnston. I’d much rather have JSN but I’m not paying a king’s ransom to move up.

SuperFlex Question: Rookie 1.03: A Richardson, J Gibbs, CJ Stroud, B Young?  -Ron A.

Richardson, Young, Stroud and Gibbs, in that order. There’s just too much QB value for me to select Gibbs ahead of them. And I’m not against JSN being selected over Gibbs as well, it’s close.

Related: Jeff Haverlack’s three-round rookie mock draft 

SuperFlex 10 PPR – should I move in with my girlfriend?  -Nate B.

I haven’t had a chance to scout her, Nate, but it really depends on where she exists on the depth chart. It usually takes time to become a GF1 but if she’s a starter this season, it’s not out of the question. If you don’t, it will definitely be a make or break season.

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Better long term stash at QB: O’Connell, Trask, or Thompson-Robinson? And random but I’ve always been curious about this. When writers in the industry like yourself talk about playing in 10+ leagues, what type of leagues are they and what is your connection to those leagues?  -Mikeael P.

Trask, Thompson-Robinson, O’Connell, in that order. I’m higher than most on DTR. On the league question, it’s a myriad of long term dynasty leagues but sometimes I’ll add leagues based on an invite or a league host offering my a free entry to play. I’m now very selective since I’m in 14 leagues.

12 team league. QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX, SFLEX. I’m at step 1 of a complete rebuild. With a complete lineup I’m projected 50 points. Tank Bigsby is probably my most valuable player. BUT, I have 18 1’s and 11 2’s between 2024-2030. Including certainly 1.1 and 1.2 this year. I have 2 questions. If I hold 1.2 do I pick Drake Maye or Marvin Harrison Jr? If I sell 1.2 do you prefer 10 1’s between 2026-2034 or 6 1’s and a 2 between 2025-2028? Thanks.  -Ryan S.

Wow. I’ve never seen leagues that allow trading of rookie picks that far out. As to your question, I’d only select Maye highly if it’s SuperFlex. Thus, Harrison Jr. is the clear choice. I would not sell the 1.2 in all likelihood and you need to start converting those picks into assets. Thus, I’d favor fewer picks but with an earlier timeline.

It seems that Alec Pierce is making noise in training camp. Is he being overlooked? It seems that he has breakout potential with a strong armed QB. Potential WR2?  -Ryan C.

I’ve liked Pierce since he was drafted. I like his profile and his upside. I’m a little unsure of near-term upside based on Richardson at quarterback but there’s also the chance he establishes chemistry early. In either case, I’m buying at the current price.

Should we be worried about the futures of Kenneth Walker and Dameon Pierce, or can you go into this year with confidence in them?  -Chris K.

I think you should be concerned about the future of all running backs. The recent past has not been good and I don’t see a catalyst for it getting better soon. I’m not acquiring Walker, though the top has come off his value. I am acquiring Pierce and think the dynasty community is getting it wrong by fading him. I’m not crazy about the Seahawks rotation and I have been staying away.

I’m picking 1.07 in a 12 team 0.5 ppr 1QB league. I’m stacked at QB (Fields/Watson/Geno) and RB (CMC/Ekeler/Pollard) and have Hock at TE, but have a clear need for WR. Unfortunately, there are only 6 top RB/WRs this year and I don’t think someone ahead of me will pull the trigger on a QB. So what should I do? Desperately trade the pick? Take Richardson and stash him for a potential trade later? Move one of my current QBs?  -Scott P.

I had the 1.06 in two drafts and took Richardson. I just wanted a piece of his upside. 1.07 is a very difficult pick to trade this year as there is such a large group of players. For myself, I’m taking Richardson and his upside. It may be too early given how raw he is, but it will be fun to watch and that’s enough for me.

How does the value of draft picks change based on the league size? I’m in a 1 QB league with 14 teams. Also, what is the difference in draft pick value between 1 QB and SuperFlex?  -Daniel H.

In single QB leagues, there’s not a ton of value differential in my mind, depth of the incoming class still rules the roost. That said, where it can make a difference is in the year before as projected late-firsts just don’t move the needle much. The draft impact from SuperFlex is pretty simple. Quarterbacks are the coin of the realm and first-round passers are going to be prioritized, moving other position players down. For that reason, when I’m set at quarterback in SuperFlex, I love to acquire picks projected at 1.06-1.09 or so.

What do you think Khalil Herbert’s production could be this season? Think it’s worth flipping him pre-season and what kind of return do you think I could get for him?  -Ben D.

It’s looking like a three-back committee and at least two. D’Onta Foreman is no slouch as a runner but Herbert is more dynamic. I don’t see Herbert running away with the lion’s share of snaps. It all depends on what value you could get in return as it will be very manager dependent. At this point, you’re not going to get more than a second-round selection and that’s not enough value for me to flip him. I’d rather hold and wait to see what the next two seasons bring.

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12 Team 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 SFlex. Need 1 keeper, have the 9th pick. Kupp 3rd rounder or Fields 4th rounder.  -Itee R.

Tough call but in SuperFlex, you have to keep Fields for upside alone.

12 team half PPR league where we can keep two players, but have to be different positions. Due to selling picks the year before I was atrocious last season. Mark Andrews is a lock, but I keep flip flopping between Najee Harris and Breece Hall.  -Justin P.

You have a 50-50 chance of picking the right back. I’ll take Hall just for upside. Harris is underrated and may be the better back in 2023, but looking beyond this year, Hall has monster upside if he remains healthy.

12 Team PPR SuperFlex league: I have Watson, Hurts, Levis at QB, J. cook, Kamara Conner, Gibson, Herbert, at RB, Jefferson, diontae, London, Ridley, Bateman Q Johnston at WR and Goedert at TE. Is this the year I go all in and how concerned should I be about only having Watson and hurts?  -Alexander M.

My golden rule is to always have at least three QBs in SuperFlex, and preferably a fourth developmental name as well. I wouldn’t sell out to add the third but work to add a third by this time next season.

Which QBs do you see moving up way in dynasty ranks a year from now? Moving way down?  Logan D.

Risers:  Stroud, Geno Smith and maybe Jordan Love. Falling:  Kyler Murray, Bryce Young and Daniel Jones.

If you don’t see your question, leave me a comment and I’ll answer. Please consider giving me a follow on Twitter and Threads: @DLF_Jeff

As always, be happy, be well and, please, be good to each other!

(Top photo: Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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