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How will Astros decide their ALDS roster? The 4 questions theyre facing

Nothing about their regular season suggests it, but the Astros are an easy team to project. They are propelled by established superstars and managed by someone who shows immense loyalty to those marquee players. All but guaranteeing 21 spots on the American League Division Series roster is simple:

Starting pitchers (4): Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, José Urquidy and Cristian Javier

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Relievers (6): Ryan Pressly, Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu, Phil Maton, Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero

Catchers (2): Martín Maldonado and Yainer Diaz

Infielders (4): Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña, José Abreu and Alex Bregman

Outfielders (4): Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez

Utility (1): Mauricio Dubón

These 22 men will determine Houston’s postseason destiny. This is not a team with many interchangeable parts. Manager Dusty Baker barely pinch hits or uses his bench at all and has relied on the same group of high-leverage relievers throughout the season.

Still, questions remain on the margins. Houston has decisions to make on the size of its pitching staff and on who takes the last two spots on the bench. If those decisions dictate the outcome of the American League Division Series, something has gone awry or another 18-inning game has broken out.

Read more: Twins vs. Astros ALDS predictions, pitching matchups and what you need to know

The one that did last season in Seattle demonstrates why these conversations are so crucial. Houston used seven relievers and three bench players to finish its 1-0 marathon win against the Mariners and sweep the series.

Here are four questions general manager Dana Brown, manager Dusty Baker and the rest of Houston’s decision-makers must be pondering while constructing the 26-man roster that will face the Twins.

1. Carry 12 or 13 pitchers?

The Astros had a 12-man pitching staff during each of their past two ALDS appearances. Both of those teams featured far more settled starting rotations, though, inviting wonder whether Houston may reverse its trend and carry an extra pitcher.

Javier has finished six innings twice in his past 11 starts. The team feared Urquidy wouldn’t have the stamina to pitch past the fourth inning during his emergency spot start on Friday in Arizona, but he surprised everyone by finishing six.

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Still, Urquidy hasn’t thrown more than 73 pitches in an outing since Aug. 23. Bear in mind, too, that leashes for all starting pitchers get shorter in the postseason.

Having at least one other stretched-out option available in the bullpen seems mandatory, but might the Astros carry two of them — J.P. France and Hunter Brown — for as much coverage as possible?

Add both rookie starters to the aforementioned 10 guaranteed spots and the pitching staff is at 12. Going with that configuration eliminates someone like veteran Ryne Stanek from the ALDS roster. Stanek spent the final three days of the season on the paternity list and did not pitch in the team’s final regular-season series.

Stanek finished last season with the lowest ERA by a reliever in franchise history, but Baker and the team’s coaching staff worried about his 5.1 walks per nine innings and did not trust him to pitch in postseason high-leverage situations. He made just four appearances during the Astros’ World Series run.

This season, Stanek boasted a 4.09 ERA, 4.60 FIP, walked 3.7 batters per nine innings and yielded 7.5 hits per nine — up from 5.9 hits per nine last season.

Stanek is not among the team’s trusted high-leverage relievers, but does boast 19 career postseason appearances and a track record of true relief work that neither Brown nor France can boast. If Houston carries 12 pitchers, one of these three appears an odd man out.

A 13-man staff would allow them all to participate, but come at the expense of a position player on the bench, either Jon Singleton or Grae Kessinger.

2. Carry two or three catchers?

The answer here hinges on how aggressive Baker intends to be pinch-hitting for Maldonado and whether Diaz will start at designated hitter during games Maldonado catches.

The Astros had 72 pinch-hit at-bats in the regular season. Only four teams had fewer. Of the nine players they project to start in most playoff games, only Maldonado profiles as one Baker will lift for a pinch hitter, but he seemed reluctant to do so during the regular season — especially in tie games or ones Houston led.

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Maldonado started all six games on Houston’s season-ending road trip. Diaz started alongside him at designated hitter during one of them — a 6-2 loss against the Mariners on Sept. 26, also the only game on the trip in which Baker lifted Maldonado for a pinch hitter.

Facing a five-run deficit, Baker pinch hit for Maldonado with the bases loaded and no outs during the seventh inning. Jon Singleton struck a sacrifice fly, Diaz moved to catcher and Houston played without a designated hitter for the final two frames.

Avoiding that scenario in a postseason game seems prudent. Carrying César Salazar as a third catcher would free Baker to hit for Maldonado earlier in a game — even if the manager has shown little willingness to do so — and perhaps start Diaz and Maldonado together.

Houston carried Salazar on its Opening Day roster for this very reason, even if some of Baker’s lineup decisions did not always align with the plan. Salazar engendered enough respect and trust from Houston’s pitching staff during that stint in the big leagues that it wouldn’t be an issue putting him in a playoff situation.

3. How much can Michael Brantley handle?

Michael Brantley could be a difference-maker in this series. (Troy Taormina / USA Today)

Before Houston’s 6-2 loss against Seattle on Sept. 26, Baker deemed Brantley available off the bench. He had not played in nine days while nursing some recurring soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder.

That night, Baker bypassed Brantley in two prime pinch-hit opportunities and later acknowledged he wanted to “save” Brantley for a planned start the next day. Brantley went 4-for-5, Houston won 8-3 and Baker’s rationale began to make sense. Brantley started two of the next three games and went hitless in seven at-bats.

It’s clear Brantley is playing at least somewhat compromised and Baker must be mindful to pick the right matchups and spots to use him. Considering Minnesota had only two left-handed pitchers on the wild-card roster — relievers Caleb Thielbar and Kody Funderbunk — the left-handed hitting Brantley should factor heavily in the ALDS.

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If Brantley is available every day during the ALDS, some of Houston’s roster decisions solve themselves. Presuming Brantley can play each game, either he or Alvarez will play left field while the other is the designated hitter.

Dubón may play center field when Verlander pitches, pushing McCormick to left and leaving Baker to choose between Alvarez and Brantley for his designated hitter.

If the choice is Alvarez — as it should be — Brantley easily surpasses Diaz as the pinch hitter Baker will turn to in a late-game situation. And, if one of Alvarez or Brantley will DH every day, it could lessen the urgency to carry three catchers.

4. Late in a game, who is the team’s best base runner?

Jake Meyers covers 29.2 feet per second when he sprints, according to Statcast. Among everyday Astros players, only Peña is faster.

During the past three seasons, Meyers’ speed and elite center field defense have made his inclusion on any playoff roster almost essential, primarily as a late-game defensive replacement or pinch runner.

This season, it’s clear Dubón has usurped Meyers as the team’s best defensive center fielder in Baker’s eyes. And, after a few baserunning blunders in September, it’s worth wondering if Meyers has a firm grip on a spot for this ALDS roster.

Meyers took just 17 plate appearances all September, ceding playing time to Dubón, McCormick and Brantley once he was activated from the injured list. Meyers slashed .235/.272/.408 with nine extra-base hits and 26 strikeouts in 103 plate appearances after the All-Star break.

Dubón has taken over as the team’s late-game defensive replacement in center field, meaning Meyers’ role — if he makes the roster — is as a pinch runner. Whether the Astros trust him in those situations will determine if he makes the roster.

(Top photo of Baker: G Fiume / Getty Images)

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